I have been both shocked and awed at the voracious media barracuda that is attacking my favorite candidate.  But as he fights off one fight after another, I am heartened.  In the long war, he wins this one...

I am coming to terms with the fact that there is going to have to be a deal.  I think Hilary and Obama supporters are going to have to take a big breath, settle in, and think about what sort of deal they are comfortable supporting.

Noone will shout "Finish him."It is like a divorce.  How much do you want to hurt the kids.

He has sent out this fundraising letter on the pretext of "Ousting the Massachusett's Supreme Court"  As a Mass resident, I haven't heard of this drill.  I haven't even heard Romney ask for it.  Classic bait and switch.  

(Howard, let's start raising money to impeach Bush.  Same idea, isn't it?)

The Henriad (IV part 1, IV part 2, and Henry V) are more and more telling these days.

But JFK could use a little of this passion.

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/003625.html#more

But, theoretically, I am pencilling in John Kerry as Democratic Nominee.  As a Massachusetts liberal, I have seen positive and negative.

I know, in my head, that Dean has a hard road to fight before the oxygen runs out and he sees the white light.  All of you Clarkies, Kerrys, Edwards folks like to remind me.

However, as an intellectual exercise, how does Dean win?

Thought 1:  While it is important to put up a fight in NM, ND, and Delaware, Washington and Michigan are key.  Perhaps this should be week of sitting back and working the West Coast?  I see that area as a strength?   Let Clark and Edwards take the heavy shots at Kerry.

Thought 2:  Why can't Dean be negative? Not "Jane you ignorant slut" negative, but pointed at policy differences.  Dean has higher negatives and has survived them.  He can draw distinctions with the other candidates.  In South Carolina, he could go negative, take his third place finish, and move out west.

He is somewhat inoculated to more bad press.  As long as it isn't crybaby whining, he can do it.

Thought 3:  How can Al Gore help you inCalifornia, Washington, and New Mexico?

Assuming Kerry goes for a "shoot the wounded" approach in SC (see Atwater) this could be a positive move.

So, I am coming around to the idea that this second place finish isn't all that bad.  If it could get down to single digits, I would feel better.

The "win Iowa, win NH" battle plan is gone. However, much has been gained.

I think the campaign's message has gotten much better.  The women's focus this weekend worked well, as did the use of issues.  I think local volunteers proved effective.  I think that the huge mess of the Scream has been neutralsed.  I think humility has returned to the game.

After Iowa, there was a massive reconsideration and retooling.  That worked.  Keep the NH plan going forward.  Town Meetings.  Local media.  GOTV seems to have worked.

We have other strengths.

1.  We want to believe.  The Deaniacs are still here, although they need to be soothed.  I need to see the Second place finish as a win.  If Dean can continue campaigning as he was this last week, then we will stick around for some more abuse.  But, you are going to have to give us something.

New and visionary ads would be a start.  Ads that are clearly much different from standard political ads would help.  I liked the Courage ad, and the Biography one is okay (although all of those issues tacked on at the end make it confusing).  But, some ads that focus on the Deaniacs and on changing Washington would really help.  Getting something really out there that WE could look at and say "Wow."

We are going to need to know the new plan.  Electability arguments end when you win a primary.  Where do we win? North Dakota?  Delaware? New Mexico?  Perhaps this could be a part of the Meetup packets.  This will be the most important Meetup EVER for us.  Let us in.

2. Our enemies are weak.  The money edge will holdout for another two weeks.  Edwards should have sat NH out.  His momentum took a hit, even with a third place finish.  Clark just isn't catching fire.  Lieberman is gone.  

John Kerry is Dean-lite.  He needs Howard to be his foil.  Without Howard, Kerry doesn't have much to stand on.  He is the moon, reflecting Dean's sunlight.  I think we should stop attacking him, and concentrate on Bush.  Steal from Edwards and be positive about others.  Further, Kerry has won in two states where the institutional Democrats worked for him.  he goes into states where the Kennedy power brokers don't work so well.

But let Edwards and Clark take on JFK.  Let us sit back and Lick our wounds.  JFK isn't the most likable or cuddly candidate.  We did a good job gaining on him in NH.  Give the state another two weeks, as usual, and we would take him.  We are going toned some help from other campaigns now.  Kerry is just the one to give it to us.  His entire career has been political calculations.  He will be a tentative leader and will make a mistake.  Since the expectations are that he is the presumptive nominee,

If he goes into SC hard in order to take out Edwards or Clark, they have to engage hard.  A SC loss for either Edwards or Clark to Kerry will be fatal.  They will fire the rest of their ammunition there.   Best to stay out of there.  

3. Low Expectations.  The pundits have us dead.  Even Kos is crestfallen.  Use meetup and the blog to keep us happy, but let the pundits talk about Edwards and Kerry.  Then, two weeks down the line, they can comeback with "Here Comes Dean."  Again, take the page from John Edwards playbook and be positive as we move forward.  Let Clark and Edwards take on Kerry.  As long as the campaign can keep picking up delegates, it doesn't need to win every race.
4. We have good ideas, but some need to be fleshed out more.  What will the Tax Reform be?    
5. We need a little luck.

We need to win a contest.  Somewhere.
We need to attack Bush and be positive  ("We can...")
We need to let our enemies attack each other.
We need to  figure out a path to victory

Take the Country Back

Talk to the hand, becaue the face ain't listening.