A lot has already been written about vice presidential choices, but I would recommend to Obama to do something which is common in the UK: assemble and present a shadow cabinet before the election.

Usually, the vice presidential choice is made and public well before the convention. The media is less than thrilled to show a meaningless three day cheerleading event on their valuable frequencies, if there is no news being made. What would be better to define the candidate and make news by actually starting with cabinet post nominations?

These people can then speak out for Obama on their policy issues during the campaign and thus demonstrate their competence.

Of course there are risks to that strategy. His nominees could stumble. They could distract.

But on the other hand: Breaking with tradition like this would embody the very change Obama is promising before he even takes office. And it would guarantee a multiple times more air time for the convention and he could use it to subsequently dominate news cycles when he needs it, eg. having to distract from problems with his campaign, or simply as a way to change the dominating issue.

Follow me after the fold, who I believe should be on that team:

http://abclocal.go.com/...

Thought, I'd inform my fellow Kossacks since some sites like MyDD are telling users, that there will be no live stream available due to restrictive licensing by ABC.

I may use this diary later as a live thread.

While many polls seem to show a real possibility of PA voting for McCXain over Obama in the GE and many commentators in the loberal blogosphere have jumped on that bandwaggon, there are signs that any such fear is unwarranted.

Just look at Todays TIME poll out of PA. On the face of it, it shows HRC with a clear lead over Obama in the primary and also polling considerably better against McCain, narrowly winning PA, while Obama would loose.

Nothing ambigous here, it seems. Well, you'll have to look somwhat deeper into the polls internals, to finde out whats really going on here...

Have we seen the turning point in this race?

The daily Rasmussen tracking poll certainly suggests so.

It has Barack Obama with a commanding double digits lead over Hillary Clinton, with the electability gap (against McCain) widening as well.

Today’s results show Obama earning support from 49% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton attracts 37% (see recent daily numbers). Perhaps the most stunning aspect of the Obama surge is that he now leads 46% to 41% among women. Clinton retains a lead among the narrower subset of white women, but her lead in that vital demographic is down to just three percentage points.

Obama now leads 47% to 44% among white voters and 69% to 10% among African-American voters. Rasmussen Markets data now shows Obama to be a solid favorite to win the nomination. However, while the national data is all moving in Obama’s direction, new state polling data shows Clinton is competitive in Wisconsin’s Primary next Tuesday and holds a significant lead in Ohio’s contest scheduled for March 4.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

Senator Barack Obama has taken the lead in the national daily tracking.

In a dramatic swing from the previous day Obama now leads Clinton

02/13/08
41%
46%

after trailing her by two points yesterday

02/12/08
44%
42%

http://rasmussenreports.com/...

Whoever had any doubt about the positive influence John Edwards had on the democratic primary and his competitors should be shocked, shocked I say, to hear that Hillary Clinton has obviously agreed to take part in a FOX News debate later this month in DC.

Wolfson said that the campaign has accepted several debate invitations, including a CNN debate on Feb. 27 in Ohio and a Fox News debate on Feb. 11 in Washington, D.C.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/...

With final results of the Iowa caucus as follows:

Barack Obama 37.5%
John Edwards 29.8%
Hillary Clinton 29.4%

we should revisit the question of which polling company should be trusted or not.

The winners are Insider Advantage, Zogby and DMR.

The big loser is ARG.

Much, much more analysis after the fold:

Now, with more than 50% of precincts in the democratic caucus reporting the results are:

1,000 of 1,781 districts reporting

Obama       34.52
Edwards     31.61
Clinton     31.13
Richardson   1.69
Biden        0.98
Dodd         0.04
Uncommitted  0.03

Looking at the recent diaries list, I have concluded that it must be silly season already. Dozens of disrespectful anti XXX diaries who pretend to be neutral, but are clearly meant to undercut any momentum there might be to a candidate. When someone asks, where supporters of candidate A will go to after he/she lost Iowa, then I consider this a hit diary.

To counter this stuff I wanna post a positive diary asking my fellow Kossacks who you consider to be Edwards best running mate/gal.

I want to admit upfront, that I support John Edwards for president.

Still, I have to admit: This was not his best debate performance. By far.

It has become so commonplace on this site, to just cheerlead for your candidate, whatever the facts, whatever the truth, whatever was really going on, that I just decided to write a diary, critical of my first choice in this primary.

While others are spinning to death, I am more inclined to believe, that serious analysis is much more helpful to my candidate.

That said...Edwards didnt shine yesterday in Las Vegas.

Why?

Read on....

Clinton withholds support for Edwards

(Loony Press Agency) Washington DC - Not answering a question not yet posed to her about whether or not to support rival candidate John Edwards, if she would not be the democratic nominee for president, Hillary Clinton not only gave her opponents a wide opening for criticism, but also did not rule out endorsing someone else.

She also did not rule out running as an independent or leaving the democratic party altogether. Not pressed to explain her non answer, she even left open the possibility to become a private citizen again and start a career as a professional triangulator.
In a move certain to enflame liberal primary voters, she gave no hint, that she would categorically not be a candidate to lead the Washington DC lobbyist chamber.

First of all: I don't think there was a clear cut winner in this debate.

Some candidates did well, some very well, some not so well.

Now some observations:

Talk time was distributed very unevenly (source)

While Obama was always able to finish his statements he ended up with 16 minutes of talk time, Edwards wasnt so lucky, he only got 11:42 minutes (Obama had 36% mor time to get his message out). Hillary got 14:26 minutes, Richardson who was - like Edwards - often interrupted by moderator Wolf Blitzer only got 10:48 minutes. Joe Biden was surprisingly able to get several memorable moments and soundbites in a meager 7:58 minutes.

And this Wolf Blitzer guy actually got more than 13 minutes to talk. Who is he anyway? I didnt see him registering even 1% in any democratic primary poll ;-)

Didnt see any diary about the horserace numbers, so here is the latest Des Moines Register poll of likely democratic caucus goers:

Edwards 29%
Obama 23%
Clinton 21%
Richardson 10%
Biden 3%
Kucinich 2%
Gravel 1%
Dodd -
Not sure 11%

Link

What to make of it? I think Edwards is still comfortably ahead among LIKELY caucus participants and clearly Richardsons strategy to run TV ads early has´paid off and he is now moving up rapidly.

As predicted by Kos, Chris Bowers and others, the weekly Rasmussen Poll of the Democratic Primary is the first to show Hillary loosing her lead, with Obama and her tied at 32 % each and Edwards at 17 %.

Gore just went on stage at the Oscar ceremony with Leonardo DiCaprio and  starts a (fake) formal announcement. Leo asks him repeatedly, whether he he really really doesnt want to make a major announcement. Gore finally gives in, takes out his prepared remarks but gets cut off by the official (you went on too long music).

Of course it was just a joke, but Gore came across as genuine and humorous. And when Leo said that he is thankful for standing with Gore, a "true and inspirational leader" Gore looks as if he is really moved by his words.

Perfect show.

I just spent the last couple of hours watching C-SPANs streamed coverage of the DNC Winter meeting with speeches by all the major presidential candidates. I missed Dodds speech though and the first minute of Obama.

My first observation: No one adressed the looming war with Iran. Big disappointment!

Now my first take on each speech:

The American research Group has just published the results of its latest round of democratic and republican primary polls. The numbers out of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina show Hillary R. Clinton comfortably leading all other contenders painting a very different picture of the state of the race than competing polls from Research2000 and other polling outfits.

The new CNN poll shows former vice president Al Gore with a statistically insignificant lead of 1% over senator John McCain (47-46%) and a much wider lead of 53-37% over Mitt Romney.

Gore is tied with Rudy Guiliana at 46% each.

In comparison:

Barack Obama - McCain 43 - 47%
Barack Obama - Romney 51 - 35%
Barack Obama - Guiliani 42 - 49%

Clinton - McCain 47 - 47%
Clinton - Romney 57 - 34%
Clinton - Guiliani 48 - 45%