Are you familiar with Prediction Markets?  They're a way of aggregating information from a wide variety of people and sources to make an informed decision.  The Iowa Electronic Markets have been predicting election results with better accuracy than polls since 1988, and have been proven to be consistently better than a single expert's prediction.  Companies like Google use them to make predictions about strategic events in the future.

This matters because there is a data out there, RIGHT NOW, that can tell us without bias our real chances of taking the Senate in 2006.  Polls are great information sources, they tell us what people think about the candidates and their positions.  But prediction markets take everything into account: polls, financial positions of candidates, advantages of incumbency ... everything.  And more importantly, people are investing their own money in the outcome by purchasing contracts that pay them when their candidate wins.  I'll show you what I mean on the flip...

Do you ever get disappointed in predictions?  Experts and polling that tell you our candidate is going to win, and then they go on to lose?  Sometimes we're just hoping and staying positive for the sake of the campaign.  Other times we just delude ourselves.

Prediction Markets are a way of aggregating information from people across the country (and for that matter, globe).  They've been proven to be consistently better than expert opinions, and even polling. Companies like Google use these markets to help make predictions about strategic events in its future.

Fortunately, there are real-money markets trading right now on the chances a Democrat or Republican will win each Senate seat this year.  Unfortunately, they are showing that the Democrats will not win back control of the Senate in 2006.  Right now, the Senate is divided 55-45 (counting Jeffords as a Democrat).  Nine seats are theoretically competitive, but only seven of those are actually competitive.  We will win one seat for sure, and possibly four.  Exact results and discussion on the flip...

Are you familiar with Prediction Markets?  They're a way of aggregating information from a wide variety of people and sources to make an informed decision.  They've been proven to be consistently better than a single expert's prediction.  Companies like Google use them to help the company make predictions about strategic events in the future.  They can also predict what will happen in upcoming elections!  (And have accurately done so in the past.)

Unfortunately a dose of reality means a bit of pessimism on the usual dKos exuberance.  It will be very difficult to take the Senate in 2006, but Democrats will come close.  Right now (considering Senator Jeffords as a Democrat), the Senate is divided 55-45.  According to the users of Tradesports nine seats are competitive; six Republican and three Democrat.  If held today, Democrats would pick up only one seat for sure (but lose none) making the Senate 54-46.  Three others look to be trending our way, which would make it possibly as good as 51-49 heading into the next Presidential election.  Exact results and discussion on the flip...

Ever heard of Prediction Markets?  They're a way of aggregating information from a wide variety of people and sources to make an informed decision.  They've been proven to be consistently better than a single expert's prediction.  (Link goes to example of poor expert forecasting.)  Companies like Google use them to help the company make predictions about strategic events in the future.

Unfortunately a dose of reality means a bit of pessimism on the usual dKos exuberance.  It will be very difficult to take the Senate in 2006, but Democrats will come close.  Right now (considering Senator Jeffords as a Democrat), the Senate is divided 55-45.  According to the users of Tradesports nine seats are competitive; six Republican and three Democrat.  If held today, Democrats would pick up only one seat for sure (but lose none) making the Senate 54-46.  Three others look to be trending our way, which would make it possibly as good as 51-49 heading into the next Presidential election.  Exact results and discussion on the flip...

Ever heard of the Iowa Electronic Markets?  It's a political futures market that has been in operation since 1988.  Their predictions have been remarkably accurate, and helped develop the field of "prediction markets."

One website, TradeSports, has a broad series of election-based markets for 2006.  They include all of the Senate and Governor's races in 2006, as well as markets for overall control of the House and Senate.  I think it's important to bring in a neutral point of view in the Senate 2006 outlook, and thus plan to keep track of the Senate predictions and periodically post about them.  This type of market has shown to be quite accurate and representative of the average population.

It will be very difficult to take the Senate in 2006, but Democrats will come close.  Right now (considering Senator Jeffords as a Democrat), the Senate is divided 55-45.  According to traders on Tradesports eight seats are competitive; six Republican and two Democrat.  If held today, Democrats would pick up two seats but the GOP would likely keep control of the Senate by a margin of 53-47.

Exact results and discussion on the flip...

Okay, I admit it.  I am absolutely fascinated with the body that is the United States Senate.  With traditions that reach back to Roman times, I feel that it is one of the most important government organizations that exists in our country.

It is because the U.S. Senate wields so much power that I think the Democrats must be focused in retaking majority status.  We don't need a filibuster-proof sixty Democrats (though that would be great), but the influence gained with majority status is critical in getting legislation through Congress.  And with the redistricting of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats simply have a better chance of retaking the Senate than the House these days.

I know kos has put up a very preliminary look at the 2006 Senate races here.  Even more importantly, there is a good dKosopedia article on the races here.  I wanted to consolidate all of it into one post for people to pick at, think about, and discuss.

Below the fold I'll get into much more detail of who's running, who's not; who's looking good and who's not; and where we can all go from here.

I just got back from a fantastic speech by former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich.  It was held at the London School of Economics this evening.

The event was about an hour speech by Mr. Reich on "What to Expect from the Second Bush Administration, and Why" and about a 30-minute question period.

I'm doing this a bit hastily (it's getting late in the UK and want to write this all while it's still fresh) so I apologize for any incoherance.  But he had some interesting perspectives on the next few years and what Democrats can do to start taking back the government.

Notes start below....

Reading through the newspaper today, I was struck by two articles.  One was about the ouster of the head of Calpers, and the possible future politization of their control board.  The other was on the "Crown of the Continent" project.  This is a huge environmental success where modern progressive tactics have built a natural land bridge from Yellowstone through to the Yukon.  

More below the fold...

As a new reader and follower of George Lakoff, I have become excited with the possibilities of framing the political debate.  You can purchase his books (Don't Think of an Elephant /$7.50 or Moral Politics /$14.96) at Amazon, and I know that many people here are familiar with his work and the work of his think tank, the Rockridge Institute.  But let's face it... we can't wait for years of think tanks to do everything for us.  Early action is key, and I believe the dKos community can play an important part.

What I aim to do is throw up some possibilities for reframing some of the topics, issues, and ideas that can help us appeal to our base but also outside our base.  I'm hoping that I'll have some good ideas to start out with, but I'm more hopeful that as a community we can discuss them and come to a consensus that we can use to start appealing outside this forum.  Ideally I see Kossacks getting together behind a new frame and promoting it into the consciousness of progressive politicians and eventually the mass media.  We can take control of our future.

Well, the tech geeks out there are voting in force for Kerry.  Right now he's got 43% compared to Bush's 19% in slashdot's online poll.  (This is a widely read geek site... they're self-billed as "News for Nerds.")

To vote for yourself go here and look for the poll in the right hand column.

To see the results, go here.

So far the number and type of comments associated with this poll are running in line with the results.  There's a lot of discontent with the Bush administration, and that likely applies even more in an industry that has seen its fair share of outsourcing in the last four years.

However, there's a strong Libertarian/Independent streak among these techies... they just need to be convinced that between the two candidates that Kerry is centrist candidate that they'd be interested in.  A true uniter, and not the Bush divider.

Argh!

I had to get this experience off my chest, and who better to sympathize/strategize with than the dailyKos community?

First off, I am an active-duty military officer, stationed in Europe.  I like my job, and I love the experience of living overseas.  But what happened at work today really set me off.  (And before I begin, I'd like to note that I am sending this off from my computer at home, and NOT speaking as a representative of the military.)

One of the other officers in my building sent an e-mail to a distribution list that I'm on, with nine anti-Kerry pictures.  (Standard political propaganda... Dumb and Dumber movie poster with Kerry/Edwards, Kerry as James Dean in Rebel without a Message, etc.)  He was forwarding something he had received from a relative of his.  I was just dumbfounded to think that he thought this was okay.