Much talk has been made about whether Edwards voters go to Clinton or Obama (assuming Edwards doesn't pull off any monumental surprises).  The predominant belief here seems to be Obama, but I decided to look at IA and NH exit polls to see how his demographics break.

Not surprisingly, the results depend on which demographic you use.  Perhaps more surprisingly, his vote does not go overwhelmingly to either Clinton or Obama.

Short version: By most demographics, an Edwards withdrawal has minimal change on the results.  The exceptions are age, where his withdrawal would help Clinton, and 'Opinion of Edwards' where his withdrawal would help Obama.  Long version and details below the fold.

I'm suprised this hasnt been mentioned yet, considering how important it is.  As most of you know, there is a referendum to approve the constitution in 2 weeks.  It must be approved by 50% of Iraqis, and more importantly 2/3 of the voters in each of 3 provinces can reject it.

On Sunday, Parliament changed the rules so that the 2/3 requirement applies to registered voters instead of actual voters.  The 50% requirement still applies to actual voters.

Very few states in America get 2/3 of registered voters to even appear at the ballots, and the Iraqi security situation makes the referendum laughable.  I think the impact of this is huge in delegitimizing the Iraqi government and constitution.  Step 2 to civil war?

In 1983, we were part of a bipartisan effort to rescue social security until well into the 21st century.  Some minor changes were needed 5 years back, and we promised to protect social security funds for eternity by putting them in a lockbox.  We were met with ridicule, and this administration went ahead to spend the money and more on tax cuts to the rich and wasteful adventures on both international and domestic fronts.  

Today, we hit Syria with sanctions .  Is such an action the first step of an Iraq-type war?  Or is this a legitimate use of non-violent means to achieve a more peaceful world?  If the latter, is Syria an appropriate country to apply sanctions to?