Obama edged ahead of Clinton in both the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls today and shows serious national MO.  Perhaps a consensus is emerging?

This is the first time he has led in either poll.  Of course, the only thing that matters now is the remaining states but national numbers give us an idea if people are starting to decide this is over and Obama has won.

Rasmussen
          Today  2/12  2/11  one week change
Obama   46     42    41    +4
Clinton   41     44    46     -5

Gallup
          Today  2/11  2/10  one week change
Obama   45     44    44   +5
Clinton   44     45    46    -7

I have been a Deaniac since August 2003 and from this day forward, I am a Dean Democrat.  This man has proved to be so much more than a typical politician and is a true man of his word.  He has done so much to get people involved in the democratic process, and even though he didn't get the nomination, he didn't go back to Vermont and sulk; instead, he continues to grow the grassroots in any way he can.  I fully support Howard's candidacy for President, Senate, or DNC chair.  I just wanted to share the brief story below with you all, mostly because I am pretty excited about it.  More below the fold...

I hope this has not been diaried yet.  New ARG polls in FL, OH, & PA are looking good for Kerry.

Florida 10/25 (10/5)
Kerry 49 (47)
Bush 46 (45)

Ohio 10/25 (10/6)
Kerry 49 (48)
Bush 47 (47)

Pennsylvania 10/25 (10/6)
Kerry 50 (48)
Bush 47 (46)

The new Ohio Poll conducted by the University of Cincinnati shows some pretty bad trends for the Kerry camp.

9/12-9/18 (August results in parentheses)
456 likely voters, MOE: 4.6%

Kerry/Edwards 43 (48)
Bush/Cheney 54 (46)
Nader/Camejo 2 (1)
Other 0 (1)
Undecided 1 (4)

Some bad news from the Buckeye state.  A new poll from Mason-Dixon shows Kerry down.

Bush 47
Kerry 41
Nader 3

1500 registered voters "who plan to vote in November"
MOE: 2.6
May 20-25
No trend lines that I'm aware of

This contradicts the recent Zogby and ARG polls showing Kerry up by a few points.  Those polls are a couple of weeks old though.  Are we seeing public opinion shift back to pre-Abu Ghraib levels or just a bad sample or methodology?

In a new IssuesPA/Pew Poll of adults Kerry and Bush are tied at 42% with Nader getting 5%.  With 11% still undecided, Kerry seems in an okay position here.  At least 1/4 of Nader voters are going to go for Kerry in the end and undecideds tend to break for the challenger by about 3:1.  Of course, I'd like him to be up more, but I think this shows that Bush really doesn't have much support for an incumbent here.

Poll was of 1,001 adults with MOE +- 4%

Please help me out.  I'm sorry to post a question here rather than a diary, but I think a progressive community like this is a good place to ask.

The question is: has anyone here had any interaction with the non-profit group Campaign to Save the Environment?  I ask because my girlfriend has gotten a position with them for the summer raising money door to door, but I've heard only bad things about the job.  

Anyone have any stories, good or bad?  Even 2nd or 3rd hand stories from friends would be helpful.  Thanks folks...

Not terribly good news in either state.  Both polled likely voters.

New Mexico
George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 45%
Ralph Nader 3%
Undecided 6%
+- 4%

w/o Nader:
George W. Bush 47%
John Kerry 47%
Undecided 6%

New Hampshire
George W. Bush 48%
John Kerry 43%
Ralph Nader 3%
Undecided 6%
+- 4%

w/o Nader:
George W. Bush 48%
John Kerry 45%
Undecided 7%

Doesn't look so good for a pickup right now:

Among Likely Voters
Bush 51
Kerry 42
Other 3
Undecided 4
MOE 4%

No trend lines, although a poll of "registered" voters in mid-Feb. showed
Bush 52
Kerry 44

Edwards had a rally today in Columbus on the Ohio State University campus.  The showing seemed very strong.  I got there late and was told to go outside for the overflow, as the large theater that was being used for overflow had filled up.  So I got to watch the speech through an open door on the patio....

New Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll shows:
Chandler: 49
Kerr: 40  
MOE: 4.5%  (leaners included)

Apparently it was closer without leaners, however, Chandler's support is more committed to him than Kerr's.  He also has a higher favorable rating...

My first polls, so I hope this works....

We all know there will be at least one major surprise in the NH results.  Now to test your predicting skills:  What do you think it will be, regardless of what you want it to be?

Already reported several times, but here's the link to Zogby's meager analysis.

Well I attended the first caucus of my life tonight to support Howard Dean & vote for delegates here in Ohio.  My district is the 15th Congressional district (Rep. Deborah Pryce, 4th Ranking Repug) which is in Central Ohio and is made up of about half of Columbus and some of the outlying counties.

First of all, I could tell immediately that the crowd was going to be large because the lot was full as well as the lot across the street from the union hall where it was held.  The room was large enough to accomodate many people comfortably and terrible as I am at estimation, I'll guess there were upwards of 300 people there (hopefully some other attendees have better estimates).  Whatever the attendance, the speaker-woman was impressed by the turnout and said that this showed our dedication to defeat GWB.  

Now to compare the number supporting each candidate.  First, in bumper sticker count, Dean won by a large margin.  I saw not quite 10 Dean bumper stickers and 1 Kucinich and maybe a Clark in my very short trip through the lot.

As people went, it was quite clear that Dean won there by a good deal also.  Basically there were two halves of the room with an equal number of tables.  The first half consisted of all of the Clark, Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, and Edwards supporters.  The other half was Dean, Kucinich, and like two LaRouche supporters.  So that should give you and idea right away that Dean had nearly the number of Clark, Kerry, Lieb, Gep, and Edwards supporters combined.

My best guesses:
Dean: ~115-130
Clark: ~60-75
Gephardt: Couldn't see his people very well but I'd estmate around ~15-30
Kucinich: ~20
Lieberman: ~15
Edwards:  Couldn't see his folks.  Probably around ~10-20
Kerry: ~10??  I think I must not have seen his people
LaRouche: ~2-3

The first results are coming in now.  It's:
Blanco 52%
Jindal 48%
with 2 or 3% reporting.  

Results here: http://www.sec.state.la.us:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=111503

Keep an eye on this, looks close.  Discuss.